AGP Executive Report

Uzbek–Georgia Strategic Pivot: Uzbekistan and Georgia signed a strategic partnership declaration in Tbilisi, with plans to open an Uzbek embassy in Georgia and a roadmap to lift bilateral trade to $1 billion, alongside deals on customs, digitalization, education, agriculture, tourism, labor migration, and nuclear/radiation safety. Air Cargo Connectivity: My Freighter (Centrum) expanded its interline network with Air Canada and Singapore Airlines, adding North America and wider Asia links for Central Asian shippers. Remittances Watch: Uzbekistan’s remittances rose to $3.8bn in Q1 2026, up 13% year-on-year, but Russia’s share fell as patent-based work in Russia declined. Transit-to-Revenue Push: Tashkent is accelerating logistics reforms—more centers, modern border infrastructure, and digital customs—to turn faster China–Europe transit into added revenue and jobs. Central Asia Energy Finance: The World Bank approved a $300m grant for Tajikistan’s Rogun hydropower second phase, aiming to cut winter shortages and support exports to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Regional Trade Manufacturing: Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan plan a joint match-production venture to localize supply and improve export potential. Inclusive Fintech Moves: VEON and Mastercard agreed to expand accessible financial services in Uzbekistan and other markets, including AI-enabled credit scoring and digital wallets. Green Power Investment Test: Uzbekistan targets raising electricity generation from 82bn kWh to 120bn kWh+ in five years, with renewables and grid upgrades drawing major financing interest.

SCO Trade Claim Debunked: A Belarusian Radio segment said SCO membership brings tariff-free trade for Belarus, but fact-checkers say SCO member tariffs haven’t been abolished and only trade-facilitation talks are underway. Fintech Push: Uzbekistan is accelerating its bid to become a regional fintech hub by 2030, with the Central Bank driving regulatory reforms, open banking, and startup funding. Maternity Benefit Reform: Private-sector maternity recipients in Uzbekistan nearly doubled after 2026 calculation-rule changes, with UZS 772bn paid to 66,000+ women in the first half. Education Funding: The World Bank approved $100m to improve primary education quality and expand capacity under the BILIM program. Primary Education & Workforce Planning: CERR, GIZ and HELVETAS launched an analytical platform at CERR to forecast workforce needs and reduce skills mismatches. Counter-Terrorism Roadmap: Uzbekistan and the UN Office of Counter-Terrorism signed a 2026–2027 cooperation roadmap, including plans for a rehabilitation competence center. Regional Finance Cooperation: Tajikistan and Uzbekistan signed a 2026–2027 finance cooperation plan in Tashkent. Energy Shock Watch: Russia’s gasoline shortage is spilling into Central Asia, pushing up fuel prices in Uzbekistan and tightening controls elsewhere. Trade Data: Uzbekistan’s foreign trade turnover nears $32.8bn in Jan–May, while gold export suspension weighed on overall exports. Digital Public Admin Upgrade: Uzbekistan’s 2026 census used online self-enumeration and OneID registration, updating demographic and regional planning data. Tech Awards Expanded: IT Park Uzbekistan expanded the President Tech Award prize pool to $5m and launched a President AI Award. Governance & Compliance: Uzbekistan moved to revoke a Tashkent private preschool license after alleged child abuse violations.

Uzbekistan–Tajikistan Finance Ties: Tajikistan and Uzbekistan signed a finance cooperation plan for 2026–2027 in Tashkent, with both sides reviewing economy, trade and investment coordination. Energy Exports & Transit: SOCAR Trading started shipping Uzbek-produced naphtha to international markets via the Black Sea, expanding Central Asia’s fuel transit capacity. Education Funding: The World Bank approved $105m for Uzbekistan’s primary education reform, including teacher training and new school seats across six regions. Trade Snapshot: Uzbekistan’s foreign trade turnover hit about $32.8bn in Jan–May; exports fell while imports rose, widening the deficit to $7.5bn. Cotton-Cluster Subsidies Under Scrutiny: Labor rights groups warn Uzbekistan’s new cotton-textile subsidies and VAT refund support could worsen rural power imbalances without worker-focused reforms. Regional Connectivity: Royal Jordanian launched direct Tashkent–Amman flights twice weekly, aiming to boost tourism and business links. Finance for Private Sector: ICIEC and ICD completed their first joint syndicated financing in Uzbekistan for Asakabank, combining Shariah-compliant funding with credit risk insurance. Water Tensions: Kyrgyzstan renewed calls for compensation over transboundary water, while Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan rejected payment terms under existing agreements.

Trade Imbalance: Uzbekistan’s trade deficit widened to $7.5bn in Jan–May 2026 as exports fell 15.5% to $12.6bn while imports rose 20.8% to $20.1bn, with China the biggest partner. Education Finance: The World Bank approved $100m in concessional credit plus a $5m grant for Uzbekistan’s BILIM program to lift primary learning outcomes across six regions. Cotton-Textile Support: Mirziyoyev signed new measures: subsidies of UZS 3m per hectare for cotton-textile clusters, support for dyed fabric/yarn projects, and faster VAT refunds for A-rated firms until July 1, 2027. Competition & Consumer Protection: The Competition Committee ordered refunds of UZS 285.4m to 127,000 patients after overcharging probes, and classified VFS Global and Vizametric as dominant in outbound visa services. Banking Oversight: The Central Bank fined 16 banks and 2 microfinance firms for consumer rights failures, including disclosure and complaint-handling issues. Energy & Costs: AI-92 gasoline hit a record 13.919m UZS/ton on the commodity exchange amid tighter regional supply. State Enterprise IPOs: Uzbekistan plans to delay Uzbekistan Airways and Uztelecom IPOs to 2027, citing the need for deeper corporate modernization. Regional Deals: Mirziyoyev will visit Georgia July 2–3, with talks expected to boost trade, investment, and transport links; a Uzbekistan–Georgia business forum is set for July 1.

Uzbekistan investment & capital markets: Uzbekistan’s planned London IPOs for state firms Uzbekistan Airways and Uzbektelecom have been pushed to 2027 as officials prepare them for life as public companies, after the National Investment Fund (Uznif) successfully raised about $692m in a dual listing earlier this year. Energy & infrastructure: The World Bank approved a second financing phase for Tajikistan’s Rogun hydropower project (US$300m IDA grant), aimed at expanding renewable power and supporting electricity exports to Central Asia, including Uzbekistan. Regional business ties: The Georgia-Uzbekistan Business Forum is underway in Tbilisi with ~70 Uzbek firms and ~250 Georgian companies, covering construction, logistics, agriculture, healthcare/pharma and textiles, with B2B meetings planned. Digital advertising market: Google appointed Coob Ads as its official Google Ads sales representative in Uzbekistan (plus Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Moldova), expanding localized support for advertisers. Trade & diplomacy: Uzbekistan’s president’s Afghanistan special representative met Qatar’s ambassador in Tashkent to discuss expanding cooperation in trade, transport/logistics and humanitarian support for Afghanistan’s development. Agriculture innovation: FAO opened its first Global Conference on Smart Farming, pushing tech adoption for small producers facing climate and input pressures.

Aviation & PPP: Freshfields advised an international consortium on Uzbekistan’s new Tashkent International Airport PPP, targeting up to 20m passengers and 129,000 tonnes of cargo annually, with financial close expected later this year. Infrastructure & Industry: President Mirziyoyev ordered measures to boost the construction materials sector and push locally made inputs across housing, infrastructure and tourism projects, tied to TIIF 2026 commitments worth $43bn. Digital Payments & Fintech: SQRIL expanded its stablecoin-to-QR payments into Central Asia, positioning QR rails as cheaper and more widely accepted than legacy crypto/stablecoin cards. Trade & Connectivity: Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan will upgrade two border crossings to international status and run them 24/7, aiming to improve traffic flow and border efficiency. Energy Risk: Kyrgyzstan hit a summer electricity consumption record, highlighting how the system’s hydropower dependence and low water levels can trigger supply disruptions. Macroeconomic Reform: Mirziyoyev met IMF Deputy Managing Director Bo Li to deepen support on digital payments, capital account liberalization, statistics and exchange-rate market discipline. Business Climate: Uzbekistan’s automotive market saw sales down 2.5% in Jan–May, while the banking system reported a 3.7% non-performing loan ratio.

IMF Talks: President Mirziyoyev met IMF Deputy Managing Director Bo Li to expand cooperation on Uzbekistan’s reform agenda, including digital payments, capital account liberalization, better statistics, public revenue management, and preserving a market-based exchange rate. Banking Health: Uzbekistan’s central bank reported non-performing loans at 3.7% of the loan portfolio (23.6tn soums) as of June 1, with big gaps between institutions. Sick Leave Reform: From July 1, the state social insurance fund will cover temporary disability benefits from day six; employers pay only the first five days, with payouts tied to insurance history. Minimum Wage Debate: Experts propose raising Uzbekistan’s minimum wage to 40% of the median salary by 2030 and delinking it from state payroll calculations. Gold Reserves: The central bank boosted gold holdings by 24 tonnes in Jan–Apr 2026, taking reserves to 414 tonnes and making gold about 88% of international reserves. IT & AI Exports: Uzbekistan targets at least $5bn in IT and AI service exports by 2030, building on rising IT Park exports and demand for AI-ready skills. Aviation & Cargo: IATA says Uzbekistan logged Central Asia’s fastest air cargo growth and doubled its flight network. Finance Markets: OTP Bank launched a €7bn EMTN programme on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to tap Asian institutional investors. ESG & Platforms: Wildberries’ founder-led ESG push is highlighted as a model for platform-economy impact across Eurasia. Energy Connectivity: Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan are advancing a Caspian Green Energy Corridor to export renewable power to Europe via a planned submarine cable. Jobs Abroad: A $562m fund aims to create 10,000 jobs abroad. Business Climate: World Bank talks focus on structural reforms, SME support, poverty reduction, and accelerating privatization.

Banking Health Check: Uzbekistan’s central bank says non-performing loans hit 23.6 trillion soums, or a 3.7% NPL ratio as of June 1, with state lenders carrying a higher burden than private/foreign banks. Monetary Policy Readiness: Central Bank Chairman Timur Ishmetov urged regulators to plan for worst-case external shocks, warning that baseline forecasts alone are no longer enough. Reserves in Focus: Uzbekistan’s gold buying remains aggressive: the central bank added 24 tonnes in the first four months of 2026, taking reserves to 414 tonnes, with gold now about 88% of international reserves. Social Sector Financing: Uzbekistan completed its first Ishonch Fund health project, investing $43.5m in maternal and newborn care via 227 perinatal centres, backed by UNICEF, UNFPA and WHO. Fuel Safety Overhaul: The Cabinet approved stricter safety rules for fuel stations after 2025 inspections found tens of thousands of violations and led to temporary suspensions at 464 sites. Trade & Connectivity: Indonesia’s parliament speaker pushed for direct flights with Uzbekistan to boost religious tourism and halal business ties. Investment & Industry: Youngone plans to expand its Samarkand plant into a more integrated textile hub, lifting investment toward $40m over three years.

Visa-Free Tourism Boom: Uzbekistan’s travel demand for China jumped sharply after visa-free rules, with searches up 189% year-on-year; leisure travel led the surge, including Shanghai (+319.9%) and Sanya (+386.2%), while average airfares fell about 20% as more direct flights and Chinese carriers entered the market. Textile Investment Push: Youngone plans to expand its Samarkand plant into a fully integrated textile hub, adding fabric, dyeing and finishing; investment is set to rise from about $22m to $40m over the next three years to move beyond garment assembly. Banking & Credit Signals: Moody’s upgrade to Ba2 (citing structural reforms and robust growth) is framed as a business-positive shift for Uzbekistan’s financing outlook. Trade & Connectivity: Kazakhstan upgraded two Uzbekistan border crossings to international checkpoints with 24/7 operations, aiming to ease congestion and improve freight and passenger flows. Energy Dependence Watch: Russia’s fuel disruptions are spilling into Central Asia, pushing up prices and squeezing household budgets, highlighting the region’s vulnerability in energy supply chains. Payments Innovation: SQRIL announced expansion into Central Asia, pitching lower-cost stablecoin-to-QR payments as an alternative to card networks. Corporate/Regional Deals: Korea and Uzbekistan discussed expanding trade and investment, including manufacturing AI transformation, ahead of a Korea-Central Asia summit. Public Health Funding: $43.5m in confiscated Karimova assets is being directed to maternal and neonatal care improvements via the “Ishonch” fund.

Uzbek-U.S. Environment Deal: Uzbekistan and the United States have upgraded environmental cooperation into a long-term strategic partnership under the C5+1 framework, targeting climate resilience, biodiversity, sustainable development, and scientific collaboration. Maternal Health Funding via Returned Assets: $43.5 million confiscated from Gulnara Karimova’s assets in Switzerland will be routed through the “Ishonch” fund to cut maternal and neonatal mortality, including equipping 231 maternity hospitals and training 80,000+ medical workers. Central Asia Payments Push: SQRIL says it is entering Central Asia with stablecoin-to-QR payments across Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan, pitching lower fees and wider merchant acceptance versus card networks. Credit Rating Boost: Moody’s upgraded Uzbekistan’s sovereign rating to Ba2, citing structural reforms and robust growth—an update investors will watch for financing costs. World Cup Business Angle for Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan’s World Cup run continues to draw attention as DR Congo beat Uzbekistan 3-1 to reach the knockouts, setting up a high-profile Round of 32 matchup. Culture as Diplomacy: Namangan hosted the Third International Maqom Art Forum, with President Mirziyoyev highlighting maqom as a bridge across borders and generations.

Uzbekistan Airways IPO Prep: Uzbekistan Airways is preparing for a landmark IPO, with the state-backed Uzbekistan National Investment Fund (UzNIF) and government pushing a corporate overhaul aimed at boosting profitability and valuation in 2026-27. Sovereign Credit Boost: Moody’s upgraded Uzbekistan’s sovereign rating to Ba2, citing structural reforms and robust growth—good news for financing costs and investor appetite. Trade Diplomacy: Uzbekistan and the U.S. accelerated talks on a comprehensive trade pact, including an early-harvest deal and reciprocal trade/investment discussions, while President Mirziyoyev met the U.S. Trade Representative. Corruption & Finance Rules: Uzbekistan created a corruption convicts registry as part of anti-graft reforms, and moved to simplify access for foreign investors by overhauling financial regulations; separate reporting also flags tighter scrutiny of citizens’ card data. Customs & Connectivity: Uzbekistan’s push for Eurasian logistics and connectivity continues, alongside customs cooperation efforts tied to global standards. World Cup Business Angle: Uzbekistan’s World Cup debut is being used by U.S. policymakers to spotlight Central Asia’s critical-minerals supply role, even as the team exited after a 3-1 loss to DR Congo.

World Cup & Uzbekistan’s brand push: Uzbekistan’s debut at the 2026 World Cup is already drawing Washington’s attention, with U.S. officials using the team’s visibility to spotlight Central Asia’s “Central Five” role in critical minerals supply chains. Moody’s & credit outlook: Moody’s upgraded Uzbekistan’s sovereign rating to Ba2, citing structural reforms and robust growth—an update that matters for business confidence and financing costs. Trade talks: Uzbekistan and the U.S. accelerated negotiations on a comprehensive trade pact, including an early-harvest deal and reciprocal trade/investment discussions. Energy & grid modernization: At UzEnergyExpo, CHSH showcased medium-voltage power equipment aimed at upgrading Uzbekistan’s electrical infrastructure. Corruption crackdown: Uzbekistan created a corruption convicts registry as part of its anti-graft overhaul, alongside moves to tighten enforcement. Payments modernization: Uzbekistan rolled out a mandatory QR payment system, charging merchants per transaction. Transport connectivity: Progress continues on the China–Kyrgyzstan–Uzbekistan railway project, supporting regional logistics.

Sovereign Credit Boost: Moody’s upgraded Uzbekistan’s sovereign rating to Ba2 and kept the outlook stable, pointing to stronger institutional reforms, governance and fiscal performance—good news for business borrowing costs and investor confidence. US–Uzbek Trade Push: Uzbekistan and the United States are set to sign an agreement on reciprocal trade and investment promotion, with an “early harvest” package that includes tariff cuts on U.S. industrial and agricultural goods in exchange for favorable consideration on Uzbek exports. Capital Markets Momentum: Uzbekistan’s National Investment Fund listing—managed by Franklin Templeton—drew record interest and is shifting attention to the next step: building the rules and market depth needed for broader financing, including debt and private investment. Anti-Corruption & Compliance: Uzbekistan is creating a corruption convicts registry as part of its anti-graft overhaul, while regulators also move to tighten financial oversight. Infrastructure & Connectivity: The Cabinet says construction of the China–Kyrgyzstan–Uzbekistan railway is progressing steadily, with officials stressing funding, quality and environmental compliance. Corporate Tax Dispute: Coca-Cola Bottlers Uzbekistan has paid about $25m in back taxes and is contesting the assessment in court. Regional Climate Finance: A Central Asia dialogue in Bishkek advanced a roadmap and investment plan to cut transboundary mudflow and flood risks, including a digital catalogue for climate risk tools.

Uzbekistan-US Trade Push: Uzbekistan and the United States announced a new “early harvest” package, with Tashkent set to cut or reduce tariffs on a range of U.S. industrial and agricultural goods, while both sides also move to speed up talks on a reciprocal trade and investment agreement. Credit & Investment Momentum: Moody’s upgraded Uzbekistan’s sovereign rating to Ba2, citing structural reforms and robust growth, as President Mirziyoyev urged officials to turn the $43bn TIIF investment pipeline into real projects, jobs, and higher value—not paper deals. Anti-Corruption Overhaul: Uzbekistan adopted major amendments creating an electronic registry of corruption convictions and tightening restrictions on those convicted, including limits on civil service, elected office, and participation in public procurement and PPPs. Banking & Finance Flows: The Export-Import Bank of China signed a CNY700m loan with the National Bank of Uzbekistan to support investment projects and equipment/material purchases. Critical Minerals Deal: NEQSOL Holding signed a cooperation agreement with Uzbekistan’s mining ministry to jointly develop critical minerals, including titanium, during TIIF 2026. Trade & Connectivity: Uzbekistan also discussed closer trade ties with South Korea, including support for Korean firms and a business-friendly environment via a Korea Desk. Energy/Regional Context: While not Uzbekistan-specific, Russia’s fuel crisis is reshaping regional supply discussions, underscoring the wider volatility Uzbekistan investors and planners are navigating.

US–Uzbek Trade Push: The U.S. and Uzbekistan announced an “early harvest” package of trade commitments, with Tashkent set to eliminate or cut tariffs on a wide range of U.S. industrial and agricultural goods, while Washington will give favorable consideration to Uzbek exports under U.S. law; both sides also plan to speed up talks toward a Reciprocal Trade and Investment agreement. Credit Rating Boost: Moody’s upgraded Uzbekistan’s sovereign rating to Ba2 from Ba3 and shifted the outlook to stable, citing stronger institutional and economic frameworks, faster growth (GDP up 7.7% in 2025 and 8.7% in early 2026), and improved fiscal discipline. Digital Finance Uptick: A Central Bank survey with ADB support found digital payments adoption in Uzbekistan jumped to 71.17% of respondents in 2025 (from 39% in 2021), with spillovers into lending, insurance, and investment services. Corruption Crackdown: Uzbek authorities detained electricity officials in separate cases tied to alleged extortion schemes totaling UZS 150 million, targeting access to power and manipulation of corporate debts. Regional Connectivity: The EU launched a Europe–Central Asia Connectivity Agenda Platform in Brussels, aiming to coordinate investment and policy across transport, energy, digital infrastructure, and trade facilitation—Uzbekistan included among participants.

US–Uzbek Trade Push: The United States and Uzbekistan agreed an “early harvest” on trade commitments and will accelerate talks toward a reciprocal trade and investment agreement, including tariff changes and deeper investment cooperation. Transport & Connectivity: Armenia approved an intergovernmental deal with Uzbekistan on international road transport, aiming to remove current barriers to passenger and freight movement. Regional Finance: The EDB signed a cooperation memorandum with the Eurasian Economic Commission to update joint mechanisms and expand work in industry, agro-processing, export finance, and AI-enabled tools. EDB Strategy: The Eurasian Development Bank adopted a new strategy through 2031, targeting expansion of its geographic footprint to 11 countries (including Persian Gulf states) while keeping existing shareholders central. Business Diplomacy: Uzbekistan and Georgia will hold a “Uzbekistan–Georgia” business forum in Tbilisi on July 1, with focus on agriculture, electrical industry, and building materials. Disaster Risk Cooperation: Central Asia plans coordinated action under RESILAND CA+ to cut mudflow and flood risks and improve monitoring systems. Aviation & Industry: Allied Biofuels advanced its $6.1bn SAF/e-SAF project in Uzbekistan with a detailed engineering contract with Sinopec Engineering. Tech & Investment Climate: Uzbekistan continues positioning itself as an operational hub for tech firms, highlighting One Stop Shop setup and IT Park support.